16 June 1999
Low expectations in South Africa
by Barrie Collins
Against the predictions, 89 percent of the South African electorate
returned to the polls for the country's second-ever democratic elections at
the beginning of June. The result, an overwhelming victory for the African
National Congress (ANC), surprised nobody. The congress won 66.35 percent
of the vote - another 0.32 percent and they would have achieved the
two-thirds majority that their opponents had scaremongered about. With a
two-thirds majority, a party can change the constitution.
Yet these figures were issued by the same electoral commission that first
declared the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) to be the new official opposition,
before discovering a 'computer error' that had resulted in both the IFP and
the ANC being credited with too many votes. The silver medal was then
hastily transferred to Tony Leon's Democratic Party. (But by then, outgoing
President Nelson Mandela had already been on the phone to congratulate IFP
leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi.) During the last elections there were
allegations that the electoral commission had fixed Inkatha's victory in
KwaZulu-Natal in advance of polling.
The most striking feature of these elections was the difference in popular
expectations from the previous democratic elections. There was none of the
euphoria that surrounded the first post-apartheid elections in 1994. By all
accounts, the ANC's record in office is dismal. A million new low-cost
houses had been promised by now - a fraction of this number has been
delivered. Unemployment remains anywhere between 30 and 40 percent,
depending on whose figures are used. This time the masses voted in hope,
not expectation, of tangible progress. A combination of respect for
Mandela, a residual perception of the ANC as the party of liberation, and
the absence of any other credible contenders accounted for the increased
ANC majority.
For the ANC leadership, the two-thirds majority was a non-issue. There was
never any question of using its mass base to change the constitution more
to its liking, or even to enforce genuine majority rule. Having attained a
solid relationship with the business community, there was no question of a
change in priorities - big business interests first, those of the black
majority second. Predictably, incoming President Thabo Mbeki declared that
'the centre has held in favour of democracy'. Yet the centre was not in
contest. The choice was not between right and left, all parties had
affirmed their commitment to free market principles. Those considered to be
on the left, the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South
African Trade Unions, demonstrated once again their extraordinary capacity
to drum up the ANC vote while refusing to rock the boat or respond to
increasingly strident attacks from the ANC leadership. Those who did stand
as a 'left' opposition, together with the racist 'right', took just over
two percent of the vote.
The Democratic Party's (DP) gain was almost directly proportional to the
New National Party's (NNP) loss (the NNP was formerly the National Party of
the apartheid era, and then the ANC's partner in the 'government of
national unity'). Unable to drop its apartheid baggage, and stuck with some
of the mud flung at it in the course of the Truth and Reconciliation
Commission which held public hearings into atrocities committed during
apartheid, the NNP lost 54 seats. The DP gained 31. An overwhelmingly white
party, the DP was seen to be a more politically correct vehicle for white
reaction. It's 'Fight back!' slogan had more of a resonance among those
fearful of the black majority than the NNP's 'Hang murderers and rapists!'.
A universal concern over the country's high crime rate dominated the
elections. The ANC has promised to take tougher action. In the hope that
things will get better, an emasculated majority has legitimised a state
that is proposing authoritarian measures which even its apartheid
predecessor might have envied.
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